Real Vision: Finance & Investing Inflation Inbound? | Macro Mondays: May 4, 2026
May 4, 2026
They unpack rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and what escort plans could mean for oil and global supply. They survey inflation risks from energy and imported goods and why emerging markets are most vulnerable. They debate whether the surge in AI capex looks like genuine build-out or a speculative bubble as markets climb.
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AI Backlogs Growing Faster Than CapEx
- AI CapEx is accelerating and backlog growth is outpacing spending, supporting continued demand for cloud infrastructure.
- Andreas Steno Larsen cites Microsoft reporting a growing contractual OpenAI backlog worth roughly $300 billion that outpaces hyperscaler CapEx ramps.
Meta's AI Spending Lacks Backlog Support
- Meta is increasing CapEx but lacks the contractual backlog that justifies hyperscaler buildouts.
- Andreas Steno Larsen notes Meta AI remains marginal in consumer usage, so their ad price narrative feels more storytelling than evidence.
Credit Conditions, Not Tech Hype, Will Burst The AI Wave
- The AI capex cycle won't reverse until central banks raise the price of money and pull the credit-cycle 'rock' away.
- Andreas Steno Larsen argues front-end real rates falling amid rising inflation currently favor continued CapEx expansion.