Real Vision: Finance & Investing The Real Risk Goes Beyond War | Macro Mondays: March 23, 2026 w/ Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
Mar 25, 2026
A deep dive into macro risks from a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting inflation and energy shocks. Discussion of political tweets that move markets and how leverage and repo spreads could trigger rapid moves. Breakdown of US-Iran backchannels, Iran's bargaining position, and the implications for central banks, liquidity, and funding.
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Lunch Interrupted By Tweets And Market Moves
- Andreas Steno Larsen recounts being in a business lunch interrupted by Trump's tweets and market volatility.
- He describes checking Bloomberg on his phone mid-meeting and choosing not to implement index hedges, favoring rotations instead.
Supply Shocks Arrive With A Time Lag
- The real economic effects of the Strait closure lag actual events by weeks because shipping times delay supply impacts.
- Andreas Steno Larsen examples it takes ~3+ weeks for LNG shipments from Qatar to Japan, so shortages begin to show now.
There Is A Negotiable Exit Path For The US
- The US achieved several tactical aims but not elimination of Iran's nuclear program, so a negotiated outcome remains possible and politically sellable.
- Mikkel Rosenvold suggests Trump can frame decapitation of missile leadership and a reopened strait as a victory short of regime change.