The Downballot Dems notch 10th special election flip
Mar 12, 2026
They break down a New Hampshire special election flip and what it means for state politics. They track a high-profile Georgia runoff and a messy Texas GOP Senate scramble. They cover sudden withdrawals, engineered handoffs, surprising independent entries, and key primary contests shaping next year’s map.
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Runoffs Let Democrats Concentrate Support
- Even in very red districts Democrats can improve performance by consolidating their vote in runoffs, as seen in GA-14 where a single Democrat led first round Democrats into a runoff.
- Sean Harris got 37% and advanced to the April 7 runoff in a Trump 68–31 district, narrowing the partisan gap to roughly R 60 / D 40.
Tight Primaries Can Bleed Party Resources
- Very narrow primary margins can force expensive recounts and drain party resources ahead of tough general elections.
- Phil Berger trailed by 23 votes after provisionals in a state Senate primary, making him a likely lame duck and a potential fundraising loss for NC Republicans.
Gonzales Dropout Opened Door For Herrera
- Tony Gonzales bowed out of his runoff after a scandal, handing the nomination to Brandon Herrera and altering general election dynamics.
- Gonzales' affair with a former staffer who died by suicide prompted GOP leaders to urge his withdrawal and cleared the path for Herrera.