Bloomberg Talks Fed's John Williams Talks Inflation, Policy, US Labor Market
Apr 7, 2026
John Williams, New York Fed President and veteran central banker, discusses inflation, monetary policy and the U.S. labor market. He talks about how energy shocks could lift headline inflation. He outlines the data that would trigger policy moves. He explains why the economy remains resilient and how AI-driven investment shapes hiring and productivity.
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Energy Shock Could Push Headline Inflation Above 3 Percent
- John Williams expects headline inflation to rise in the middle of the year due to energy price shocks from the conflict in the Middle East.
- He estimates annual inflation around 2.75% but warns markets expect ~3.25% and outcomes hinge on how high and how long energy prices stay elevated.
Core Inflation Likely Stable Near Two And A Half Percent
- Williams sees core inflation remaining around 2.5% for the year despite energy-driven increases adding maybe 0.1–0.2 percentage points.
- He cites falling tariff rates and other positive signs that support underlying disinflationary momentum.
Wait And Watch But Stay Ready To Respond
- Monetary policy is well positioned now to 'wait and see' on war-related effects while remaining ready to act if inflationary pressures persist.
- Williams stresses monitoring imported goods, core inflation, expectations, food and energy before adjusting policy.