Why Should We Care About the Future of the Indian Ocean’s Most Strategic Island? | with Cleo Paskal

When the U.S. recently launched strikes on Iran, the world’s attention turned to Diego Garcia, a vital military base in the Indian Ocean. Known as the “footprint of freedom,” this isolated atoll allows the U.S. to port Navy ships, resupply nuclear submarines, and launch strategic bombers. However, its future is in serious jeopardy.

During the conflict, the UK initially withheld permission for the U.S. to launch strikes from the island. Beyond that, the UK has been pushing a highly controversial deal to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago, which includes Diego Garcia, to Mauritius.

In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso are joined by Cleo Paskal, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a leading expert on Chinese political warfare. Cleo unpacks the dangerous implications of the Chagos handover, warning it could allow Chinese maritime assets to operate dangerously close to U.S. forces, threatening American power projection.

Cleo unpacks the uncertain prospects for the deal, and then proposes instead giving the Chagossian people a democratic vote in their future, and suggests they may very well prefer the status quo or even a U.S. affiliation to any handover to Mauritius.

The conversation then pivots to the Pacific Islands, where China is quietly expanding its influence through political and gray zone warfare. Cleo details how a Chinese state-owned company secured a foothold in Yap (Federated States of Micronesia) by building a remote runway, gaining political leverage and physical presence right next to planned U.S. defense infrastructure.

Cleo also sounds the alarm on the U.S. territory of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). Located on the Second Island Chain, CNMI currently allows Chinese tourists to arrive without a visa, leading to massive local corruption, intelligence risks, and illegal maritime crossings into the highly secure military hubs of Guam.

Tune in to discover why Cleo believes the transfer of Diego Garcia would be a “colossal strategic blunder,” how China is co-opting U.S. funds for its own Belt and Road projects, and why the frontline of Indo-Pacific security is much closer to home than we realize.

👉 Follow Cleo Paskal at FDD, on X at @CleoPaskal, or on LinkedIn.

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👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight

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👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific