Robinson's Podcast 162 - Tim Palmer: Chaos Theory, Probabilistic Forecasting, and Climate Change
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Nov 3, 2023 Tim Palmer, Royal Society Research Professor in Climate Physics at the University of Oxford, discusses topics such as black holes and the holographic principle, quantum mechanics, meteorology and probabilistic forecasting, chaos theory and consciousness, and the problem of climate change in this episode.
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Chaos Is Intermittent, Not Uniform
- Chaos creates intermittent instability: systems can be predictable most of the time yet suddenly produce extreme surprises.
- Palmer emphasizes dealing with intermittent instability rather than treating chaos as uniform unpredictability.
Run Ensembles, Not Single Forecasts
- Use ensemble forecasting: run many slightly different simulations to represent uncertainty in initial conditions and models.
- Treat diverging ensembles as a warning of instability and inform probabilistic decisions.
The 1987 Storm Revealed Ensemble Power
- The 1987 'Great Storm' in the UK (Michael Fish storm) retrospectively showed vast ensemble divergence and extreme instability.
- Retrospective ensembles suggested hurricane-force winds had ~30–40% probability days ahead, a massive change from prior expectations.