The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series As Fertilizer Falls, Famine Will Follow || Peter Zeihan
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Mar 26, 2026 A look at how the Strait of Hormuz closure and escalating attacks are disrupting global fertilizer supplies. A clear breakdown of potash, phosphate and nitrogen and where they come from. An explanation of Qatar’s outsized role in nitrogen production and the scale of lost ammonia and urea output. A warning about uneven, long-term risks to food production, especially in China and South Asia.
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Global Nitrogen Fertilizer Collapse
- Global nitrogen fertilizer supply is collapsing because Persian Gulf ammonia and urea output (30–35% of the world) has gone to zero after Strait closures and strikes.
- Qatar alone produced ~11% of global urea and its LNG/production facilities were hit, likely offline for months even if fighting stops.
US Buffer Against Fertilizer Shortages
- The nitrogen problem can be mitigated where oil and gas are abundant because ammonia/urea can be produced from natural gas or naphtha derived from oil.
- The United States is likely to avoid severe shortages due to plentiful natural gas and status as a net oil exporter that can scale production.
Chronic Global Nitrogen Deficit Forecast
- Even if short-term shortages are limited in some regions, persistent loss of Persian Gulf production implies chronic global nitrogen deficits for decades.
- Zeihan forecasts sustained higher prices and eventual global food production stalls and crashes in vulnerable regions.