Iran: The Latest Project Vault: Trump's battle to break China’s critical mineral stranglehold
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Feb 9, 2026 
Naaja Nathanielsen, Greenland's minister overseeing mineral policy, and Sam Olson, chief analyst on critical minerals and geopolitical risk, discuss Project Vault and the race to secure rare earths. They cover why processing capacity matters more than mining. They examine China’s market leverage, funding and permitting challenges, Greenland’s timelines and sovereignty concerns.
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Build Processing Infrastructure First
- Prioritise building domestic refining and processing capacity, not just mining or stockpiles.
- Reduce permit delays and regulatory roadblocks so refineries can open fast.
Allied Refining Gives Strategic Leverage
- Working with allies (NATO + IP4) could create enough refining capacity to push back on Chinese market manipulation.
- Collective refining share gives strategic pricing and supply leverage.
China's Innovation Mercantilism Explained
- China uses market manipulation and export controls deliberately to crush competitors and shape global supply.
- This 'innovation mercantilism' destroys rival industries and secures long-term dominance.