The Smerconish Podcast Trump 2.0 at One Year: Why Democrats May Take Back the House in 2026
Jan 22, 2026
David Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst at the Cook Political Report, shares his insights on the shifting political landscape one year into Trump's second term. He discusses the shrinking number of battleground districts and the significance of independent voters. Inflation and immigration emerge as critical issues that could sway the 2026 midterm elections. Wasserman also explains how modest Democratic gains now could have a substantial impact and the potential risks posed by extreme activists on both sides.
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Competitive Map Has Shrunk
- Most congressional districts are non-competitive so the battleground window has shrunk dramatically. A 15-seat swing today can be equivalent to a 30-seat swing in prior eras.
2018 Comparison Misleading
- Democrats can't replicate the 2018 41-seat pickup because they start from a higher baseline of seats. With fewer vulnerable districts, large gains from past midterms are unlikely in 2026.
Enthusiasm And Independent Drift
- There's a strong Democratic enthusiasm gap driven by outrage over Trump's actions, while some Trump voters feel disenchanted. Independents who backed Trump on inflation may drift away if prices don't fall and foreign policy stumbles.