The Story The Gulf's moment of truth - reshaping the Middle East
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Mar 12, 2026 Michael Stephens, RUSI senior associate fellow and RAND expert on Gulf security. He unpacks Iran’s strategy of targeted disruption, explains why different Gulf states respond differently, and describes threats to shipping, desalination and air defences. Discussion covers daily life under strikes and how this moment could shift Gulf–US ties and the region’s economic and security future.
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Influencer Sees Dubai Hit By Drone Strike
- Hofit Golan witnessed missiles and intercepted debris falling on Dubai, including the Fairmont Hotel in flames after an Iranian drone strike.
- She described debris coming down at supersonic speeds and days of loud explosions that disrupted daily life and flights.
Strikes Mark A Before And After Moment
- Michael Stephens calls the recent Iranian strikes a clear before-and-after moment for the Gulf because Iran directly targeted Gulf states with missiles.
- He said this marks the long-feared escalation after decades of concern and causes significant damage and disruption.
Gulf States Have Deeply Different Stakes
- The six GCC states vary widely in size, wealth and policy: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE and Oman.
- Differences include population sectarian makeup, gas resources, and divergent foreign policy priorities.