Evidence-Based Management

Working with uncertainty: A conversation on evidence-based management

12 snips
Jan 28, 2026
Preston Davis, a management professor and venture practitioner who evaluates startup pitches. Eric Barends, director at the Center for Evidence-Based Management who applies research to decisions. Denise Rousseau, a Carnegie Mellon professor with decades studying organizational decision-making. They discuss sitting with uncertainty, how discomfort shows up when using evidence, teaching ambiguity, testing ideas with pilots and experiments, and reputational risks around honest doubt.
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INSIGHT

Evidence Always Carries Uncertainty

  • No single piece of evidence is perfect; all evidence carries uncertainty and limits.
  • Combine science, practitioner experience, organizational data, and stakeholder views to approach the full picture.
INSIGHT

Certainty Hides Learning Opportunities

  • Experienced managers often present high certainty and resist uncertainty at first.
  • Creating doubt (the "valley of despair") is essential for moving them toward evidence-based thinking.
ADVICE

Shift To Probabilistic Thinking

  • Move from absolute conviction to probabilistic thinking and update beliefs with new data.
  • Use small tests and evidence to raise your confidence rather than expecting total certainty.
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