
Evidence-Based Management Working with uncertainty: A conversation on evidence-based management
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Jan 28, 2026 Preston Davis, a management professor and venture practitioner who evaluates startup pitches. Eric Barends, director at the Center for Evidence-Based Management who applies research to decisions. Denise Rousseau, a Carnegie Mellon professor with decades studying organizational decision-making. They discuss sitting with uncertainty, how discomfort shows up when using evidence, teaching ambiguity, testing ideas with pilots and experiments, and reputational risks around honest doubt.
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Evidence Always Carries Uncertainty
- No single piece of evidence is perfect; all evidence carries uncertainty and limits.
- Combine science, practitioner experience, organizational data, and stakeholder views to approach the full picture.
Certainty Hides Learning Opportunities
- Experienced managers often present high certainty and resist uncertainty at first.
- Creating doubt (the "valley of despair") is essential for moving them toward evidence-based thinking.
Shift To Probabilistic Thinking
- Move from absolute conviction to probabilistic thinking and update beliefs with new data.
- Use small tests and evidence to raise your confidence rather than expecting total certainty.



