Craig Hemke - Navigating Metal Volatility Amidst Global Tensions, Open Interest At Multi-Year Lows

Mar 2, 2026

Craig Hemke, founder of TF Metals Report and metals market analyst, discusses how geopolitical shocks are creating wild swings in oil and metals. He breaks down how algorithmic trading and thin COMEX liquidity cause intraday noise. He stresses the importance of monthly charts, notes multi-year low open interest, and examines miners’ massive free cash flow and physical silver dynamics.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

Algo Driven Intraday Whiplash In Metals

Precious metals moves are dominated by high-frequency algos causing illogical intraday swings.
Craig Hemke points to COMEX light liquidity and a spiking dollar index that amplified a $95 to $87 silver drop overnight.

ADVICE

Prioritize Monthly Closes Over Intraday Noise

Focus on monthly and quarterly closes, not intraday noise, when making investment decisions in metals.
Craig recommends treating intraday volatility as trader noise and using long-term charts to determine trend direction.

ADVICE

Trade Headlines But Keep Long Term Fundamentals

Stay nimble: trade the geopolitical headlines but maintain long-term investor perspective on fundamentals.
Craig warns crude oil moves from Iran conflict can affect rates, FX, and metals, so monitor risk like a trader.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

In this KE Report Daily Editorial, we are joined by Craig Hemke, the founder and editor of TF Metals Report. As we transition into March, the precious metals market is reacting to significant geopolitical volatility following recent U.S. actions in Iran and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Craig provides a deep dive into why gold and silver continue to show resilience despite extreme price swings and high-frequency trading dominance.

Key Discussion Points:

Geopolitical Volatility and Oil: How the escalating conflict involving Iran is creating a "whiplash" effect in crude oil prices and its subsequent ripple effect on the global economy and interest rates.
The Power of Monthly Charts: Why long-term investors should prioritize monthly and quarterly closes over intraday "noise" caused by computer-driven algorithmic trading on the COMEX.
Low Open Interest in Metals: A look at the surprisingly low participation rates in gold and silver, which Craig argues contradicts "bubble" narratives and sets the stage for further gains.
Mining Equity Earnings: Analyzing the massive free cash flow being generated by major producers like Newmont and Agnico Eagle, and what this means for future M&A activity and share buybacks.
Physical Scarcity vs. Paper Markets: Addressing the rumors regarding COMEX defaults and the reality of physical silver demand in major hubs like China and India.

Click here to visit Craig’s website - TF Metals Report - https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/

--------------

For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:

The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/
Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/

Investment Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Investing in equities, commodities, really everything involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.