School of War Is the Strait of Hormuz Closed Forever? with Sal Mercogliano
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Apr 7, 2026 
Sal Mercogliano, associate history professor and former U.S. Merchant Marine who runs the YouTube channel What’s Going On With Shipping. He recounts transiting the Strait of Hormuz, explains vessel traffic lanes and Iran’s selective coastal channel. They cover historical attacks, how insurance and war-risk pricing throttle trade, the limits of military reopenings, and global ripple effects on energy and supply chains.
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Strait Is Busy, Deep, And Economically Diverse
- The Strait of Hormuz is congested but wider and deeper than commonly imagined, with a roughly two-mile traffic lane inside a 21-mile-wide deep channel.
- About 130–140 ships transit daily including 30 large crude tankers, plus LNG, LPG, fertilizer, helium and car carriers that make the route economically critical.
Hormuz Moves More Than Oil
- The strait carries ~20% of global oil production and ~11% of global trade by tonnage, not just crude but LNG, LPG, ammonia, helium and fertilizers.
- Disruptions risk cascading shortages for fuel, shipping bunkers, and seasonal goods like fertilizer for planting cycles.
Tanker War History Repeats In New Forms
- Attacks on merchant shipping are not new; Sal references the 1980s 'tanker war' where 411 ships were attacked and 400 mariners died.
- Similar tactics reappeared in 2019 and now again as states use commercial vessels as pawns.