Perspectives with Wenchi Yu Ep. 36 Germany's China Shock: Navigating Economic Dependence and Geopolitical Risks with Noah Barkin
Mar 27, 2026
Noah Barkin, senior advisor at the Rhodium Group and former Reuters correspondent on Europe‑China ties, offers on‑the‑ground perspective. He maps Germany’s shift from investment optimism to a “China shock.” Short takes cover manufacturing job losses, auto industry bets in China, supply‑chain dependence, 5G and infrastructure security, and Europe’s slow de‑risking vs economic entanglement.
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China Viewed As A Key Enabler Of Russia In Ukraine
- Europe perceives China as an enabler of Russia in Ukraine through dual-use technology transfers and continued energy purchases.
- Barkin says these transfers are proven and increasingly advanced, making China's role a persistent policy concern in Berlin.
From Lucrative Market To Competitive Threat
- German industry shifted from seeing China as a pure growth market to viewing it as a competitive threat across chemicals, machine tools, autos and more.
- Barkin highlights 'China shock' conferences and rising concern over Chinese overcapacity flooding Europe.
Job Losses Linked To Production Shift To China
- Germany is losing roughly 10,000 manufacturing jobs per month as firms repatriate less profit and shift production to China.
- Volkswagen's plan to cut 50,000 German jobs while expanding in Anhui exemplifies the deindustrialization pressure.