The Straits Times Podcasts S2E66: Iran’s war machine can only last a few more weeks: Expert
Mar 19, 2026
Professor Benjamin Radd, a UCLA political scientist and Middle East expert, explains why Iran’s military strength is eroding. He discusses depleted missiles and drones, nuclear delivery hurdles, the risk of foreign assistance, Gulf states’ security concerns, and possible political outcomes inside Iran. Short timelines and internal fractures suggest the conflict may not be sustainable.
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Bomb Material Exists But Delivery Remains The Bottleneck
- Iran likely has enough enriched uranium to build roughly 10 to 11 bombs but faces major delivery challenges.
- Radd explains shrinking a device into a missile-deliverable warhead could take months or years, so rapid operational nuclearization is unlikely this year.
Allies Can Help But Cannot Deliver A Ready Warhead
- External help (North Korea, Pakistan, Russia) could accelerate aspects but cannot export a deliverable warhead undetected.
- Radd says Iran would still need to finalize miniaturization and integration inside Iran, making covert transfer impractical.
Three Likely Political Outcomes In Iran
- Possible Iranian outcomes include a military junta, maintaining a symbolic Supreme Leader with behind-the-scenes rulers, or internal revolution.
- Radd argues a long-term attrition stalemate is unlikely because Iran lacks resources to sustain the campaign more than a few weeks.