Global Commodities: Agri trade returns to President Trumps Agenda

10 snips

Oct 3, 2025

Agri trade is back on the U.S. agenda as President Trump plans to address China's soybean purchases. However, time may not be on the side of U.S. farmers, with potential market recovery unlikely until later. Current strong exports of corn and wheat highlight competitive pricing, while risks loom with a potential government shutdown affecting USDA data. The assessment shows global agricultural stocks at multi-year lows, with notable upside price risks. Plus, the ENSO transition to La Nina could impact crop yields in key regions, raising further concerns.

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INSIGHT

Shutdown Clouds USDA Data And Market Visibility

The US government shutdown threatens timely USDA reports, complicating market visibility.
Delays may hide necessary yield and export revisions, increasing near-term uncertainty.

INSIGHT

World Availability Tighter Than Futures Suggest

Global agri availability sits at or near multi-year lows for 2025-26 despite weak futures.
Futures track relatively ample US supplies, masking tighter world balances.

INSIGHT

Acreage Shifts Tighten Soybean And Palm Balances

Soybean and palm oil availabilities declined due to lower soybean acreage and other shifts.
US farmers moved acreage to corn amid trade concerns, boosting corn area to multi-decade highs.

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Agri markets have returned to the US trade agenda, following President Trump’s commitment to discuss China’s absence of US soybean export orders at an upcoming meeting with President Xi. However, it’s likely too late for US soybean farmers and exporters to regain market share through the current season, unless the Chinese reserve moves into stockpiling mode.

During this episode, Tracey also discusses the agri market outlook including recent fundamental developments and weather risks as the ENSO cycle is transitioning to La Nina. Our September 2025 assessment of global agri commodity fundamentals has found that availability remains at or near multi-year lows in 2025/26 and with markets priced for production perfection, we see upside price risks ahead across much of the complex.

Speakers:

Tracey Allen, Senior Commodities Strategist, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on October 3, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5090092-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5088200-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5094837-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.