The Nonlinear Library EA - Who is Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) really, and how could he have done what he did? - three theories and a lot of evidence by spencerg
Nov 11, 2023
13:45
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Who is Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) really, and how could he have done what he did? - three theories and a lot of evidence, published by spencerg on November 11, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum.
As you may know, Sam Bankman-Fried ("SBF") was convicted of seven counts of fraud and conspiracy. He now faces the potential of more than 100 years in prison.
I've been trying to figure out how someone who appears to believe deeply in the principles of effective altruism could do what SBF did. It has been no surprise to me to see that the actions he was convicted of are nearly universally condemned by the EA community. Could it be that he did not actually believe in EA ideas despite promoting EA and claiming to believe in it? If he does believe in EA principles, there seems to be a genuine mystery here as to why he took those actions.
There are a few theories that could potentially explain the seeming mystery. In this post, I'll discuss the strongest evidence I've been able to find for and against each of the three theories that I find most plausible.
It seems important to me to seek an understanding of the deeper causes of this disaster to help prevent future such disasters. It also seems to me to be essential for the EA community, in particular, to understand why this happened. An understanding of the disaster and the person behind it might be necessary (though probably not sufficient) for the community to prevent similar events from happening in the future.
A few important things before we begin the analysis
In this piece, I assume that SBF committed all the crimes that he was convicted of. If it somehow turns out that SBF isn't guilty of these crimes, then some parts of this post would not apply (and you should consider most of this post withdrawn).
It's also important to note that the opinions I express in this post are, for the most part, informed by studying publicly available details about SBF and the FTX collapse, as well as confidential conversations I've had with a number of different people who knew SBF (some who worked with him, some who knew him as a friend).
I promised confidentiality to these people to help them be more comfortable sharing information honestly with me, so I won't use their names or other indications of how they know him. I shared this post with them prior to publishing it to help reduce the chance that I introduced errors in what they said to me.
I've also pulled quotes from the new book about SBF, Going Infinite, and from podcast interviews with its author, Michael Lewis. Lewis spent a lot of time with SBF (starting from late April 2022 and continuing into SBF's period under house arrest), so he had a lot of time to form impressions of him.
I also had some interactions with SBF myself, which I discuss in more detail in my podcast episode about the FTX disaster. The podcast episode is a good place to start if you are fuzzy on the basic facts of what happened during the FTX disaster and want to know more. I also recorded an earlier podcast episode with SBF about crypto tech (prior to accusations of wrongdoing against him), but it doesn't provide much information relevant to the topic of this post. My first-hand experience with him was limited; it informs my viewpoint on him much less than other evidence I've collected.
I am very interested in hearing your own arguments or evidence with regard to which theory you think is most likely about the FTX calamity (whether it is one of the three outlined below or another theory altogether).
Defining DAE
Throughout this post, I'll use the term DAE ("deficient affective experience") to refer to anyone who has at least one of these two traits:
Little or no ability or tendency to experience affective (i.e., emotional) empathy in response to someone else's suffering
Little or no ability or tendency to experi...
As you may know, Sam Bankman-Fried ("SBF") was convicted of seven counts of fraud and conspiracy. He now faces the potential of more than 100 years in prison.
I've been trying to figure out how someone who appears to believe deeply in the principles of effective altruism could do what SBF did. It has been no surprise to me to see that the actions he was convicted of are nearly universally condemned by the EA community. Could it be that he did not actually believe in EA ideas despite promoting EA and claiming to believe in it? If he does believe in EA principles, there seems to be a genuine mystery here as to why he took those actions.
There are a few theories that could potentially explain the seeming mystery. In this post, I'll discuss the strongest evidence I've been able to find for and against each of the three theories that I find most plausible.
It seems important to me to seek an understanding of the deeper causes of this disaster to help prevent future such disasters. It also seems to me to be essential for the EA community, in particular, to understand why this happened. An understanding of the disaster and the person behind it might be necessary (though probably not sufficient) for the community to prevent similar events from happening in the future.
A few important things before we begin the analysis
In this piece, I assume that SBF committed all the crimes that he was convicted of. If it somehow turns out that SBF isn't guilty of these crimes, then some parts of this post would not apply (and you should consider most of this post withdrawn).
It's also important to note that the opinions I express in this post are, for the most part, informed by studying publicly available details about SBF and the FTX collapse, as well as confidential conversations I've had with a number of different people who knew SBF (some who worked with him, some who knew him as a friend).
I promised confidentiality to these people to help them be more comfortable sharing information honestly with me, so I won't use their names or other indications of how they know him. I shared this post with them prior to publishing it to help reduce the chance that I introduced errors in what they said to me.
I've also pulled quotes from the new book about SBF, Going Infinite, and from podcast interviews with its author, Michael Lewis. Lewis spent a lot of time with SBF (starting from late April 2022 and continuing into SBF's period under house arrest), so he had a lot of time to form impressions of him.
I also had some interactions with SBF myself, which I discuss in more detail in my podcast episode about the FTX disaster. The podcast episode is a good place to start if you are fuzzy on the basic facts of what happened during the FTX disaster and want to know more. I also recorded an earlier podcast episode with SBF about crypto tech (prior to accusations of wrongdoing against him), but it doesn't provide much information relevant to the topic of this post. My first-hand experience with him was limited; it informs my viewpoint on him much less than other evidence I've collected.
I am very interested in hearing your own arguments or evidence with regard to which theory you think is most likely about the FTX calamity (whether it is one of the three outlined below or another theory altogether).
Defining DAE
Throughout this post, I'll use the term DAE ("deficient affective experience") to refer to anyone who has at least one of these two traits:
Little or no ability or tendency to experience affective (i.e., emotional) empathy in response to someone else's suffering
Little or no ability or tendency to experi...