The Bill Simmons Podcast The Joker’s Revenge, Brunson Runs Amok and an NFL Over/Under Check-In With Justin Termine and Michael Lombardi
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May 15, 2024 Bill Simmons chats with Justin Termine about Nikola Jokic's stellar performance and the NFL schedule release. They are later joined by Michael Lombardi to discuss favorite win totals bets and teams poised for a down season in the NFL.
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Adjust For Short Weeks And Weather
- When evaluating NFL schedules, consider short-week matchups and opponents before those short weeks.
- Adjust expectations because travel, rest, and weather materially affect single-game performance and season outcomes.
Don’t Base Lines Solely On Last Year
- Avoid overreacting to last season's records when judging win totals; account for coaching, roster changes, and system fits instead.
- Use coaching hires and scheme fit as key drivers when assessing over/under lines.
Coach Upgrades Can Flip Home Trends
- The Seahawks' defensive struggles, not home-field effects, drove poor home results; new coaching and defensive upgrades can flip that narrative.
- Coaching hires that improve fundamentals often yield immediate win improvements.