Which party will dominate 2026?

11 snips

Dec 18, 2025

George Osborne and Ed Balls dissect the seismic shifts in British politics since 2025. They analyze Keir Starmer's domestic struggles versus Kemi Badenoch's rising stability. The discussion previews pivotal moments in 2026, including potential losses for Labour and the impact of US midterms on Donald Trump's future. They also evaluate the pressing issues of economic pressures and immigration. With surprises and standout political figures of 2025 highlighted, they reflect on the significance of upcoming elections and the crucial OBR forecast.

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ANECDOTE

Osborne Joins OpenAI For Global AI Work

George Osborne announced he will work for OpenAI to lead its Countries programme and emphasised responsible AI use.
He argued AI can boost public services but must be managed so gains aren't concentrated among the already privileged.

INSIGHT

Policy Wins Lost To Poor Storytelling

Labour delivered many policy wins in 2025 but failed to tell a convincing domestic story, hurting its poll standing.
Comms errors and U-turns on welfare and the budget damaged credibility despite substantive progress.

INSIGHT

Badenoch Finds Her Voice

Kemi Badenoch improved through stronger PMQs and conference performances, stabilising her position as opposition leader.
Yet Reform's rise and internal Conservative weakness keep the party's future uncertain.

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How has 2025 changed the outlook for Britain’s political parties? George Osborne and Ed Balls reflect on the events that have defined public opinion and led to unprecedented changes in the polls. What went wrong for Keir Starmer’s government? Why does Kemi Badenoch’s leadership now look more stable?

They also name what could potentially be the four most influential moments of 2026. Are losses in the Scottish, Welsh and local elections inevitable for Labour? Will the US mid-terms signal a resurgence or decline for Donald Trump? Could US-China state visits present an opportunity for a stronger relationship between the countries? And just how significant will the first OBR forecast since the Budget be, when it arrives in the spring?

Finally, Ed and George crown their Politicians of the Year, and take a look back at some of the best, worst, and most surprising political moments of 2025.

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Credits:

Research: Sam Burton

Production: Paige Reynolds and Eve Jones

Video Editor: Maha Al-Badrawi

Executive Producer: Ellie Clifford

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