“People Call Me Crazy”: Three Contrarian Macro Trades from Tavi Costa
Mar 26, 2026
36:05
Tavi Costa, founder and CEO of Azuria Capital, reveals three contrarian macro trades for which, he says, “people will call me crazy.” He also discusses the recent gold sell-off, which Costa argues does not fit a typical liquidation event since equities and treasuries were not crashing; he suggests an alternative possibility that Iran or other gray-area actors may have sold gold accumulated via oil trade outside the dollar system. Costa says the pullback created an oversold buying opportunity and expects gold to be multiples higher over 5–10 years, driven by dollar devaluation tied to U.S. twin deficits, central-bank buying, stagnant mine supply, deglobalization, and portfolio reallocation toward gold. He also addresses multipolarity and petrodollar concerns, favoring gradual shifts rather than a near-term reserve-currency change. Costa describes rotating across commodities, taking profits in energy, buying gold and quality miners, and adding contrarian options positions.
00:00 Intro
00:45 Gold Sell-off Explained
02:52 Middle East Gold Rumors
04:31 Buying the Dip
06:17 Gold Drivers Long Term
10:08 Petrodollar and Multipolarity
12:37 Commodity Rotation Strategy
15:40 How He Buys Gold
17:29 Three Mispriced Bets
20:29 Most Contrarian Wins
24:33 Brazil and Emerging Markets
26:59 Zeria Capital Mission
31:32 Where to Follow Tavi
https://x.com/TaviCosta
https://tavicosta.substack.com/
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