Macro Voices MacroVoices #518 Dr. Anas Alhajji: Debunking The 2026 Oil Bear Narrative
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Feb 5, 2026 
Dr. Anas Al-Hajji, energy markets expert and Managing Partner of Energy Outlook Advisors, offers macro and geopolitical analysis of oil. He debunks surplus and oil-on-water claims. He explains OPEC+ moves, Kazakhstan supply losses, and inventory distortions from SPR and China. He highlights near-term watchpoints like Aramco pricing, delayed US data, and Iran negotiations.
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Trade Range-Bound Oil With Defined Risk
- Expect WTI to trade range-bound in the 60s with headline-driven spikes; position with defined-risk structures.
- Use options skew to finance bullish exposure rather than blunt delta-1 positions.
Venezuela Won't Flood The Market Quickly
- Venezuelan production can rise quickly to ~1.2 mb/d but sustained meaningful increases require years, investment, and majors.
- A 1 mb/d rise over three years won't overwhelm demand growth or depress markets given global replacement needs.
Iran Collapse Would Be Worse Than Containment
- A regime collapse in Iran would create severe regional chaos and migration, so regional actors prefer stability.
- Blocking the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely and self-harming for Iran; disruptions would mainly hurt Asian importers.