The Milk Road Show Crypto Is Crashing… But The Macro Data Says a Massive Rally Is Coming w/ John Gillen
6 snips
Feb 4, 2026 John Gillen, a macro and crypto analyst who links digital assets to software stocks and liquidity, explains why current crypto pain began in software and private credit. He connects Bitcoin to high-beta SaaS behavior. He discusses cycle timing, market signals like ISM and Russell correlations, and why this setup could lead to a major rally in 2026.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
AI Fears Are Bleeding Into Crypto
- The market fears AI will erode SaaS moats, causing private credit and software stocks to sell off and dragging crypto down with them.
- Bitcoin is currently being priced like a high-beta software asset, linking its performance to SaaS risk sentiment.
Bitcoin Tracking Software Stocks
- Bitcoin has deviated from historical cycle correlations and is tracking software tech stocks closely this cycle.
- If tech continues to sell off, Bitcoin may test support levels like prior cycle highs and the 200-week moving average.
Use Historical Support Bands To Manage Risk
- Watch the 200-week moving average as a historical bear-market bottom that takes 12–18 months to reach after declines.
- Use established support zones (previous cycle tops) to manage risk rather than guessing an absolute bottom.