The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens How to Think About the Future (Part 1): Changing the Future Starts with How You Think | Frankly 138
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Apr 17, 2026 A new series kickoff on how to think about multiple possible futures instead of settling on one story. Discussion of why topics like energy, climate, plastics, and geopolitics must be seen as linked. Introduction to scenario thinking as a practical tool and the idea of shortfall risk—critical systems crossing thresholds. A push to expand perception and focus on robust, local responses.
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Humility About A Base-Case Economic Wall
- Nate Hagens admits he doesn't know which future will arrive and holds a base-case of a near-term economic wall.
- He frames that view with humility, noting branching outcomes from managed simplification to authoritarian consolidation after a financial shock.
Why The Podcast Covers Many Topics
- Nate explains why he hosts wide-ranging guests: each topic is relevant to some plausible future, from nuclear to soil ecology.
- He frames diverse conversations as a practical way to stay functional amid uncertainty.
Problems Are Coupled Not Independent
- Risks are coupled across domains so single-issue planning fails; energy, geopolitics, supply chains, inflation and legitimacy interact.
- Nate uses the Hormuz-related cascade as an example: a military choice quickly produced energy, fertilizer, food and legitimacy stress.