In The News David McWilliams: How the energy crisis could plunge Ireland into recession
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Apr 1, 2026 
David McWilliams, economist and Irish Times columnist, explains how Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has tightened oil supply. He discusses risks of prolonged energy disruption, possible rationing and policy trade-offs. He also examines why oil shocks often lead to recessions and argues for renewables, nuclear and batteries as long-term fixes.
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Strait Of Hormuz Creates Time Lagged Global Oil Hostage
- Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively made the region a hostage to global oil flow, creating a time-lagged crisis as current reserves run down.
- David McWilliams warns that even if a ceasefire came tomorrow, months would be required for oil production to return to January/February levels, so disruption will persist.
Risk Elevates Energy Costs Beyond Crude Price
- Rising risks raise not only oil prices but insurance and shipping costs, making higher energy prices persistent even after conflict eases.
- McWilliams notes increased ship insurance and logistical risk create a lockstep rise in costs beyond crude itself.
Short Term Subsidies Mask Need For Structural Decisions
- McWilliams views the current Irish government as reluctant to make hard decisions, favouring subsidy and short-term smoothing over structural change.
- He warns blanket subsidies confuse policy when long-term trajectory of energy costs is uncontrolled.