Un Podcast Sobre Bitcoin Bitcoin sube y el oro cae con la guerra en Irán: Dos tesis lo explican
Mar 4, 2026
Discussion of surprising market moves after the Iran strikes, with Bitcoin climbing while gold lagged. Presentation of two rival explanations: one focused on US fiscal dynamics and another on geopolitical control. Examination of data like term premium and ISM manufacturing as evidence. Speculation on how US strength could favor Bitcoin and alter gold’s role in portfolios.
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Bitcoin Rallied While Gold Faltered During Iran Attack
- Bitcoin rose ~8–10% after the Iran conflict began despite geopolitical risk traditionally favoring gold.
- Alberto Mera highlights this paradox and asks why Bitcoin rallied while gold fell in the immediate 48–72 hour window.
Two Contradictory Hypotheses Behind Asset Moves
- Two hypotheses explain the move: higher US fiscal spending (liquidity) and increased geopolitical control benefiting US assets.
- Alberto contrasts loss of fiscal control (more liquidity) vs loss of US global control as opposite drivers of gold/Bitcoin.
Gold Rally Lacks Clear Causal Trigger
- Gold's 2024 rally can't be clearly tied to immediate confiscation risk or inflation timing.
- Alberto reviews central bank buying, ETF inflows in Asia, and delayed timing versus events like sanctions and inflation.