Sensemaker Why are there mixed messages about why the US attacked Iran?
Mar 6, 2026
Laurel Rapp, Director for the U.S. and North America programme at Chatham House, offers expert analysis on U.S.-Iran relations. She questions claims of an imminent threat and explains why past diplomacy avoided strikes. They examine timing, whether Israeli actions shaped U.S. moves, Iran’s internal weaknesses, and how deliberate vagueness lets policymakers reshape goals.
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Multiple Public Rationales For The Strikes
- President Trump publicly gave multiple, shifting rationales for the strikes, ranging from defending against imminent threats to destroying missile and naval capabilities and preventing a nuclear Iran.
- Laurel Rapp highlights contradictions, noting public reporting and some U.S. analysis that undercut claims of a newly imminent nuclear or missile threat.
Timing And Credibility Of Threat Claims
- Laurel Rapp questions the timing and novelty of the threat, saying there's little evidence the danger suddenly became more imminent or untenable.
- She points out that prior claims the nuclear program was 'obliterated' make the new nuclear-risk justification particularly puzzling.
Diplomacy Breakdown As Possible Trigger
- Failed or stalled diplomacy may explain the timing: indirect talks in Amman and Switzerland preceded the strikes amid public frustration from President Trump.
- Laurel Rapp suggests talks could've been genuine or used by both sides to buy time while militaries prepared coordinated action with Israel.