The Take Why Iraq is the most fragile front in the US-Israel war on Iran
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Mar 26, 2026 Abdulla Hawez, a researcher on Iraq and Iran with on-the-ground analysis, breaks down who holds power in Iraq and the tangled roles of Shia, Sunni and Kurdish factions. He traces post-election paralysis, U.S. influence over oil revenues, Iran-backed militias' reach, and how strikes have turned Iraq into a multi-actor battlefield. He also outlines the economic strain and risks of deepening fragmentation.
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U.S. Leverage Through Iraq's Oil Dependency
- Iraq's post-election paralysis magnifies foreign leverage over its politics.
- Abdulla Hawez explains the U.S. can veto Iraqi prime minister choices because oil revenues and access depend on U.S. approval.
PMF Contains Highly Varied Militias
- Iran-backed militias within the Popular Mobilization Forces vary in loyalty and capability.
- Hawez notes the most Iran-aligned groups have IRGC command, superior weapons, training, and political weight inside Iraq.
Iraq Is Bombed By All Sides
- Iraq is uniquely attacked from multiple sides because different armed actors host opposing foreign interests.
- Hawez describes Kurds, Shia militias, U.S. and Israeli strikes and Iranian responses all striking within Iraqi territory.