More or Less How likely is ‘likely’?
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Apr 4, 2026 
Adam Kucharski, epidemiology professor and author who maps words to numerical probabilities. He discusses how everyday risk words like “likely” or “realistic possibility” mean very different things to different people. He explains his probability quiz and what it revealed about consensus and confusion. He suggests clearer ways to communicate risk so language matches numbers.
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Probability As Repeatable Frequency
- Probability as a frequency means an 80% chance implies 8 out of 10 similar events would occur.
- Adam Kucharski illustrates this with ten events at 80% yielding about eight occurrences on average.
Sherman Kent Corridor Conversation
- Sherman Kent's 1951 report used the phrase serious possibility and he meant about 65% chance.
- The corridor conversation revealed teammates interpreted the same phrase with very different numbers, prompting Kent's concern.
Probability Yardsticks Tie Words To Numbers
- Intelligence services created probability yardsticks mapping words to numeric ranges to reduce ambiguity.
- Example: highly likely mapped to 80–90% and realistic possibility to about 40–50% in UK guidance.