Trumponomics Countdown to a Global Energy Shock
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Mar 4, 2026 
Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg Economics’ chief emerging markets economist who models macro shocks, and Javier Blas, Bloomberg energy columnist and author, unpack a looming global energy squeeze. They discuss Strait of Hormuz paralysis, refinery and LNG disruptions, who gains and who loses, and how prolonged outages could ripple through oil, gas, food and water supplies worldwide.
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Global Energy Shock Hits Some Allies Harder Than The US
- Global energy shock risks are unevenly distributed across countries and sectors, not uniformly catastrophic for the US economy.
- Ziad Daoud's model shows oil-driven shocks hit UK, euro area, China more on growth and inflation, while the US faces mainly an inflation shock due to shale and net-exporter status.
Focus Policy On Inflation Not Recession In The US
- Prepare for inflationary effects rather than immediate recession in the US; policymakers should focus on inflation management.
- Ziad Daoud's shock model implies Europe and the UK face larger growth hits, so regional monetary policy responses matter more there.
Strait Of Hormuz Closure Becomes A Countdown Clock
- Timing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is decisive for market outcomes; a few days limits damage, months cause severe disruption.
- Javier Blas warns US has roughly four to five days to reopen the strait before impacts become much worse for prices and supply.