Pekingology Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China
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Apr 16, 2026 
Eyck Freymann, Hoover Fellow at Stanford and author of Defending Taiwan, studies U.S.-China relations and cross-strait deterrence. He unpacks Beijing’s aims toward Taiwan and why Xi treats the island as central to national rejuvenation. He outlines Beijing’s preference for gradual coercion over invasion and argues for stronger gray zone deterrence, integrated U.S. planning, and economic tools to raise costs on China.
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Taiwan As The Keystone Of National Rejuvenation
- Xi Jinping treats Taiwan as the keystone of national rejuvenation and sees reunification as central to regime legitimacy.
- Taiwan’s democratic success near the mainland undermines CCP claims, so Xi weighs reunification within a broader ambition set.
Xi Prefers Patience Over Risky Rapid Moves
- Xi is highly ambitious across many domains but also patient; he prefers outcomes that advance rejuvenation without catastrophic disruption.
- Freymann argues deterrence should persuade Xi that patience better serves his long-term goals than risky coercion.
One Country Two Systems Loses Credibility After Hong Kong
- Beijing offers One Country Two Systems to Taiwan as a staged, ostensibly peaceful path to integration.
- Hong Kong’s erosion of autonomy turned that offer into a visible deterrent for Taiwanese acceptance.
