Daniel Davis Deep Dive IRAN WAR LATEST /Col Jacques Baud & Lt Col Daniel Davis
Mar 31, 2026
Col Jacques Baud, retired Swiss strategic intelligence and NATO officer, brings sharp analysis on Iran and regional security. He dissects oil market patchwork after strikes. He evaluates troop buildups, the difficulty of seizing Strait islands, and why sustaining occupations is impractical. He explores European reluctance, intelligence politicization, and why diplomacy is the only durable path.
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Oil Market Stability Is Temporary Emergency Fix
- The oil market looks stable only because the U.S. used emergency measures like the SPR and sanction waivers to patch supply shortfalls.
- Col Jacques Baud argues these are temporary crash procedures and true normalization requires a political settlement with Iran.
Seizing Hormuz Demands Massive Sustained Forces
- Controlling the Strait of Hormuz requires far more than seizing tiny islands; sustained ground presence across the arch and defense against missile fires is necessary.
- Baud estimates taking full control could demand hundreds of thousands of troops and rapid logistics beyond current U.S. regional capacity.
Iran Willing To Destroy Its Own Oil Infrastructure
- Iran is prepared to destroy key facilities like Kharg Island rather than let them fall into U.S. hands, accepting severe economic self-harm to deny strategic advantage.
- Baud notes Kharg handles ~90% of Iranian oil exports and would likely be flattened if occupied.