Stop the World What the hell do we do about Iran? With ASPI’s Justin Bassi and David Wroe
Mar 20, 2026
A tense breakdown of how the Strait of Hormuz became the conflict’s linchpin and why reopening it matters for global energy. A debate over what military thresholds would let the US stop fighting without conceding victory. A look at whether allies can coordinate to curb Iran’s asymmetric tools and what hesitation would signal to China and other autocrats.
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Practical Thresholds For Ending The Iran Conflict
- The US needs threshold outcomes before declaring the conflict finished rather than absolute, objective victories.
- David Rowe lists degraded missile stocks, reduced Iranian leadership capacity, and constrained nuclear enrichment as the practical thresholds to reach.
Fuel Prices Could Undo Strategic Gains
- Ending the war purely because of short-term economic pain (fuel prices) risks reinforcing authoritarian resilience advantages.
- Democracies may lack political willingness to accept prolonged sacrifice, weakening deterrence signals to rivals.
Allies Must Share Responsibility For Hormuz
- Allies must act collectively to ensure the Strait of Hormuz cannot be used as asymmetric leverage by Iran.
- Justin Bassi urges middle powers to contribute available capabilities rather than treating it as 'America's problem.'