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WAR ECONOMY: Stagflation Hits in 2026, Gold vs Dollar | Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar

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Mar 9, 2026
Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar, economist and founder of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, warns of rising inflation and a stagflation risk in 2026. He links expanding Fed liquidity and wartime pressures to market blind spots. Discussion covers gold versus the dollar, oil shock risks from Middle East conflict, and why safe-haven flows may shift to precious metals.
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INSIGHT

Stagflation Risk From War And Policy Mix

  • Stagflation is likely as inflation rises while growth weakens due to war and policy conflicts.
  • Komal Sri-Kumar cites expanding Fed liquidity plus a persistent large fiscal deficit as the twin drivers pushing inflation up.
INSIGHT

Fed Balance Sheet Expansion Works Like QE

  • The Fed's balance sheet expansion acts like quantitative easing and feeds inflation even if officials deny the label.
  • Sri-Kumar points to the balance sheet growing above $6 trillion and judges that increased liquidity raises inflationary pressure.
ADVICE

Treat Balance Sheet Growth As Monetary Stimulus

  • Don't assume Fed statements remove inflationary effects; treat ongoing balance sheet growth as monetary stimulus.
  • Sri-Kumar warns that any expansion of liquidity, whether via T-bills or longer bonds, increases inflation risk.
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