Squawk on the Street SOTS 2nd Hour: Stocks Fall as Oil Surges. How to Navigate Energy, Emerging Markets, & More 3/9/26
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Mar 9, 2026 
Gina Raimondo, former U.S. Commerce Secretary, offers policy views on AI-driven labor shifts. Ruchir Sharma, global markets expert and Rockefeller Intl. chair, analyzes war-driven market moves and China’s trade role. Laurie Calvacina, RBC U.S. Equity Strategy head, discusses stress tests and sector sensitivity. They cover oil’s surge, emerging markets, travel disruptions, and strategic positioning in volatile markets.
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Oil Spike Is Hitting Importers Hard
- Oil spike is driving market-wide losses while energy is the lone sector holding up, with Brent and WTI jumping ~9.5% above $100 per barrel.
- Countries highly dependent on oil imports like China, India, South Korea, and Japan face sharper market pain and fiscal strain from higher prices.
RBC Stress Test Shows Market Can Absorb $100 Oil
- RBC modeled $100 oil with higher inflation and yields and still found fair-value S&P range near 6,600–6,900, implying markets may already price some stagflation.
- Laurie Calvacina used 2022 and 2015–16 earnings scenarios, 3.6% inflation, and 4.5% 10-year yields to reach this range.
Position Into Resilient Sectors And Watch Small Caps
- Tilt toward sectors likely to be resilient if oil stays high: healthcare, financials, utilities, and communication services showed low analyst-estimated impacts.
- Monitor small caps (Russell 2000) as a recession barometer since their P/E compression typically signals deeper trouble.