Squawk on the Street SOTS 2nd Hour: What Goes Up... Inside An Oil Price Plunge, Evercore's Vice Chairman, & Don't Trust Software? 3/10/26
Mar 10, 2026
Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, on real-time supply chain chaos from a closed Strait of Hormuz. Ben Reitzes, head of tech research at Melius, on why software faces structural pressure amid AI disruption. Krishna Guha, Evercore vice chairman and macro strategist, on plunging oil, Fed timing, and geopolitical risks. Multiple short takes on shipping snarls, oil scenarios, and software valuation stress.
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Two Oil Scenarios Shape Market Outcomes
- The market is weighing two oil scenarios: a baseline where prices fall to ~$70 by year-end and an upside where prolonged conflict keeps oil near $85.
- Krishna Guha ties consumer impact to duration not peak, estimating $26bn gas hit in baseline and $68bn if conflict drags on.
Pause Expectation For Fed Action On Oil Spike
- Wait on Fed moves and treat the current oil shock as a timeout in the Fed debate rather than a trigger for immediate policy change.
- Krishna Guha says the Fed's earliest practical action would be June and debate may shift to July or September.
AI Tokenization Will Reshape SaaS Economics
- Ben Reitzes argues AI will tokenise software and force seat-based SaaS to a consumption model, creating a negative mix shift for incumbents.
- He warns price hikes for AI features may backfire while cloud providers benefit from capacity demand.