Foreign Policy Live What a U.S. Attack on Iran Will Look Like
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Feb 25, 2026 
David Petraeus, retired four-star general and former CIA director, brings decades of military and intelligence experience. He walks through possible military options, intelligence limits, and regional retaliation risks. Short, direct takes on force posture, maritime threats, and how other powers might respond.
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Military Success Still Relies On Luck
- U.S. military success still depends heavily on luck despite high competence.
- David Petraeus cites close calls like special-operations aircraft hit during Maduro operation and historical disasters to show how fragile outcomes can be.
Special Ops Insertion Nearly Turned Catastrophic
- Petraeus recounts a risky special-operations insertion where a lead pilot was hit three times in the leg and the Chinook was damaged.
- He uses the episode and the 2011 Black Hawk loss to illustrate how small failures can cause catastrophic outcomes.
Target Retaliation Capabilities First
- If the objective is to limit Iranian retaliation, strike the capabilities that enable retaliation first.
- Petraeus recommends targeting missile forces, launchers, drone bases, and mine-laying assets to reduce catastrophic counters.