In the Money with Amber Kanwar When the War Ends: The Most Mispriced Trades in Global Markets with Peter Boockvar
What happens when the war ends — and what is the market getting wrong right now? Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, joins In the Money with Amber Kanwar to break down what he sees as some of the most mispriced trades in global markets. From oil to gold to global equities, Boockvar argues that investors are too focused on short-term geopolitical moves — and missing the bigger structural shifts already underway.
He explains why even if the war de-escalates, oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels, laying out the case for a higher floor driven by supply risk, global stockpiling, and a world that’s rethinking energy security. From there, he expands the conversation to a broader commodity bull market — including gold’s evolving role as a global reserve asset, as well as fertilizer and other critical inputs that could be underappreciated. He also explains how this all fits into a larger shift toward global markets and real assets.
At the same time, Boockvar warns that some of the most crowded trades may be losing leadership. He breaks down why the AI trade could be entering a new phase, why mega-cap tech like NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) are facing growing pressure around capex and margins, and why investors should be cautious extrapolating past returns. He also highlights risks building in private credit — an asset class he says has yet to be properly stress-tested — and why its expansion into retail investors could create vulnerabilities if the cycle turns.
In Pro Picks, Boockvar shares how he’s positioning for what comes next — focusing on commodities and real assets, specifically fertilizer stocks, as well as global opportunities tied to emerging market local currency bonds, with a way to play it through the VanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (EMLC). He also points to consumer staples as his personal “pain trade,” calling out Kraft Heinz (KHC) and Conagra Brands (CAG) as areas that could surprise investors.
Timestamps
00:00 Trailer
02:30 Intro
05:10 As easy as war over, markets higher?
06:40 $80 oil is the new $60
09:25 Oil stocks will pullback but do well at $80 oil
10:50 Gold still in a bull market but gains will slow
15:00 Getting global exposure
18:10 The tech question & capex concerns
25:10 Concerns about private credit
34:40 Rates, central bank influence & bonds
41:10 Why did defence pull back when the war started?
42:30 Peter’s Pro Picks (fertilizer, consumer staples, local currency bonds)
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DISCLAIMERS
The information provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
In the Money delivers expert stock picks, actionable ideas, and timely money management tips. Hosted by business journalist Amber Kanwar, each episode features interviews with top portfolio managers who suggest ways to achieve good returns. Covering everything from ETFs and Canadian stocks to global investing trends, dividend strategies, and risk management, this show is made for DIY investors, stock market enthusiasts, and anyone looking to sharpen their financial strategy.
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