The Tom Woods Show Ep. 2753 Where Did Trump's Poll Numbers Go?
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Apr 18, 2026 
Rich Barris, chair of the National Association of Independent Pollsters and co-author of Burn It Down, explains polling puzzles around Trump's 2026 standing. He contrasts good versus misleading polls and why some methods miss MAGA supporters. He explores shifting coalitions, younger voters' priorities, and how foreign policy and housing comments reshaped political support.
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Why Many Polls Misread Trump Support
- Many legacy pollsters repeatedly miss Trump support because they never adapted to how his coalition responds to surveys.
- Rich Barris says only a handful of pollsters learned to accurately sample MAGA voters, while most kept publishing misleading results.
Always Verify Poll Sponsorship
- Check who funds a poll before trusting its independence.
- Rich Barris advises verifying sponsor names and methodology because many polls are paid by partisan firms or campaigns.
Why Internals Can Outperform Public Polls
- Internal campaign polls can be larger and more granular than media polls and sometimes show different trends.
- Barris says Trump and Biden/Harris internals used massive samples and tracked over time, which revealed trends public polls missed.
