Coffee and a Mike James Howard Kunstler and Melody Wright #1315
Feb 18, 2026
James Howard Kunstler, writer on cities and future scenarios, and Melody Wright, real estate strategist and technologist, discuss distress in housing and hidden mortgage risks. They talk about California and Southwest collapse, water shortages, data centers and AI as distractions, and where Americans might relocate. Fast-paced, provocative, and focused on big structural shifts.
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Mortgage Distress Is Largely Hidden
- COVID-era forbearances hid true mortgage distress by creating non-interest liens that were often unrecorded.
- James Howard Kunstler warns these hidden workouts make official equity and delinquency stats misleading.
Private Credit Replaced Traditional Banks
- Non-bank private credit filled mortgage demand after Basel III constrained banks, using capital from funds like Apollo and KKR.
- These lenders rely on securitizations and credit-score models, raising systemic fragility according to Melody Wright.
Government May Become A Home Buyer
- Large institutional owners and builders face huge unsold inventory and negative cash flow that may force unusual interventions.
- Kunstler suggests the federal government could end up buying homes from builders or investors.
