These Energy Stocks Are Still Cheap... Not for Long

7 snips

Apr 7, 2026

Tobias Carlisle, founder and portfolio manager of Acquirers Funds and author of The Acquirer's Multiple, talks deep-value contrarian investing in energy and cyclicals. He discusses why oil stocks still look cheap, names specific refiner and shale picks, and highlights fertilizer and copper plays. He also covers housing's long recovery and the power of mean reversion in valuation-driven investing.

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INSIGHT

Low Oil Killed Supply And Set Up A Rebound

Oil equities were deeply depressed when WTI traded below $60 because low prices destroyed supply and cut drilling investment.
Tobias ran an energy-heavy fund after oil bottomed and saw equities rebound as drilling and capital return to producers.

ADVICE

Buy Energy Before Earnings Reflect Higher Oil

Buy energy names now because higher realized oil prices haven't yet flowed into reported earnings.
Expect earnings beats over the next reporting cycle as realized prices lift margins and cash flows.

ADVICE

Pick Disciplined Shale Leaders DVN And EOG

Favor best-in-class shale independents like Devon Energy (DVN) and EOG Resources (EOG) for capital discipline and buybacks.
Devon's Cotera merger and EOG's 30% IRR project hurdle make them resilient at $70–$80 oil.

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In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes value investor Tobias Carlisle back to the show. Tobias is the founder and portfolio manager of Acquirers Funds, a deep-value investment firm. He's also the host of a podcast and the author of numerous books, including The Acquirer's Multiple.

Tobias kicks things off by discussing the performance of his energy fund and the energy sector. He likes to compare gold with oil to see how their pricing has moved in relation to each other over the past year. He thinks oil companies are still cheap and believes that we haven't seen "peak oil" prices yet. He also gives the tickers of two energy companies that he's confident are good places to put your money to take advantage of the energy crisis. (0:00)

Next, Tobias shares two other energy stocks that he's fond of. While these companies aren't as stable as the previous two due to their locations, they possess quality shale sites that make them compelling considerations. Tobias then shifts his attention to two other companies focused on the fertilizer and copper industries. With the first company, he emphasizes that folks need to eat and that the company will aid in food production and remain strong, especially since "nitrogen-based fertilizer feeds half the world." And with the second company, he believes that we're currently in the middle of a cycle for copper demand. (14:52)

Finally, Tobias gives his thoughts on the housing sector. While many investors might avoid it because housing sales are lower than they were at the bottom of the great financial crisis (due to high home prices), he believes that buying now and holding on will pay off when it springs back to life. He also makes the case that in most markets you want to be a contrarian because you can buy good companies at low price-to-earnings multiples. And he cautions investors not to think about companies as blank tickers but as functioning, moving entities that have work put into them that can break them out of stagnancy. (28:34)