Prof G Markets War With Iran: Why Oil Didn’t Spike As Expected
218 snips
Mar 3, 2026 
Alex Heath, tech journalist and newsletter author covering AI industry moves. Matt Smith, oil analyst at Kpler tracking crude and geopolitics. They explain why oil barely budged despite Iran conflict. Short-term shipping risks and how decisive strikes could change market certainty. They also unpack OpenAI’s huge raise and the Anthropic-Pentagon clash.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Energy Prices Moved Unevenly After Strikes
- Oil rose but not as much as feared because markets priced in multiple outcomes including short, intense strikes and potential quick resolution.
- Matt Smith noted diesel jumped 15% and European gas nearly 50% due to targeted hits on refineries and LNG terminals, showing varied energy impacts.
Escalation Can Reduce Long Term Oil Uncertainty
- Markets didn't spike more because investors see a potential path to reduced uncertainty if the U.S. escalates decisively.
- Matt Smith compared to last year: once objectives are met, sanctioned barrels (like Iran's) could re-enter markets, lowering prices.
Sanctions Created A Two Tier Oil Market
- The global oil market is two-tiered due to sanctions, keeping discounted Russian and Iranian barrels primarily flowing to China and India.
- Smith warned that resolving sanctions would add supply to the broader market and pressure prices down.