The Compound and Friends Stocks After an Oil Spike, Internals Gone Wild, Bcred Problems, Nvda Stuck
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Mar 4, 2026 They unpack a sudden oil spike and why it cushioned the market during a selloff. They flag extreme single-stock dispersion and unusual internals that favor stock-pickers. The conversation covers private credit stress and B-Cred outflows. They debate why NVIDIA stalled after strong results and spotlight drone and modern warfare ETFs.
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Let Market Internals Guide Your Stance
- When market internals look bullish, don’t force bearish positioning; follow market behavior rather than headlines.
- Michael argues current internals show resilience and rotation, which has kept the S&P near all-time highs despite news.
Two Day Oil Spikes Predict Positive Year Ahead
- Historical pattern: two-day crude price spikes (+5% two days) precede strong 12-month stock returns about 83% of the time.
- Josh cites average 12-month forward returns ≈22% after such oil surges, excluding 2008.
ETF Company Named After Family War Story Launched JEDI
- Defiance formed an ETF (JEDI) focused on drones and modern warfare stocks, inspired by founders' family story from the movie Defiance.
- Top holdings include L3Harris, RTX, Rocket Lab and Palantir, positioning it as a boutique defense/munitions play.
