The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more Markets in a Time of War
War creates uncertainty. Lots of it. And how we all hate uncertainty.
Markets don’t like it either.
What’s going to happen? How long does it go on for? Where do things go from here?
Iran will be an in-and-out job like Maduro. Actually the regime is more entrenched than that. It’s only going to last four weeks. America’s preparing for a 100-day war. Britain is getting dragged into World War Three. It’s Cuba next. Aaaagh. Help.
At times like this it pays to zoom out and take stock of the bigger picture.
So today I’m going to do that.
With a BIG Forecast.
I’ve studied the charts, applied some simple technical analysis, all with a striaghtforward question in mind: where is all this going?
We are going to look at:
* Gold
* Silver
* Bitcoin
* Crude oil
* Copper
* The S&P 500
* The pound
* The US dollar
And I am going to give you my forecast.
Before we begin, though, take a moment.
Where do you think these markets will be by the end of the year?
* Will gold be higher or lower? What about silver?
* Will Bitcoin break $150,000 or fall back below $60,000?
* Will oil go to $100 a barrel?
* What about the stock market?
* And the pound?
Make a note of your answers.
Now let’s see how they compare with mine.
Gold
$4,400 low / $5,600 high by 31 Dec 2026
Gold bull markets don’t last forever, but they do tend to last a decade, if the last 60 years are anything to go by, and we are midway through this one. Chinese accumulation is not over, de-dollarisation is not over, central bank re-allocation is not over. Institutions, governments and private investors are still underweight. About the only group that isn’t underweight is readers of the Flying Frisby.
We are currently experiencing a mid-cycle consolidation, much as we experienced in 2006: gold went vertical from $540 to $720 then fell back and traded sideways, with an upwards bias for the next 18 months. Five years later it was $1,920.
My forecast: gold range trades. $5,150 is the current price. Gold will flirt with its old highs at $5,600. It will test $4,500 as well. Buy the dips. It’s going higher. Just not quite yet.
If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. More here.
For the mining companies to work, gold only needs to stay around these levels. The GDXJ-gold ratio - small mining companies v gold - is in an uptrend, though it’s butted up against resistance and the 2020 highs. It can go a lot higher, though maybe it needs a breather.
Silver
It’s the one everyone wants to know about.
Silver is basically a leveraged bet on gold plus industrial cyclicality. It can underperform brutally and it can overshoot like crazy too.