Brendan O'Connor “This used to be called insider trading!” – the rise of online prediction markets
Mar 21, 2026
Liz Carolan, publisher of TheBriefing.ie and commentator on media and current affairs, explains online prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. She covers how they work as yes/no peer-to-peer betting platforms. She discusses anonymous crypto bets, spikes that suggest insider information, and the military, legal and regulatory risks these markets raise.
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How Prediction Markets Operate Differently From Bookies
- Online prediction markets let anyone place anonymous, peer-to-peer yes/no bets on almost any event using crypto instead of a bookmaker.
- Platforms don't take positions; they match users and take a cut, which lets markets price probabilities in real time.
Anonymity Turns Market Signals Into Possible Insider Tips
- Because bets are anonymous and can use Bitcoin, unusual spikes can reflect insiders or untraceable actors rather than just public opinion.
- Founders pitch these platforms as collective forecasting tools, framing insider-driven edges as useful signals.
High Stakes Betting Appeared Before Real World Political Events
- Political events showed big pre-event spikes, such as bets before the attempted Maduro snatching and before an Iran invasion scare.
- U.S. Senator Chris Murphy noted unusual Iran bets and suggested decision-makers might have held financial stakes.