Freakonomics Radio 395. Speak Softly and Carry Big Data
Oct 31, 2019
In a thought-provoking discussion, political scientist Robert Pape dives deep into using data analysis to understand terrorism and foreign policy. Chuck Hagel reflects on past military interventions and the challenges they posed, while Michèle Flournoy emphasizes the role of diplomacy in security strategies. They explore the limitations of economic sanctions, the realities of spreading democracy, and the evolving nature of cyber warfare, shedding light on the complexities that define modern international relations.
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Somalia Intervention
- Robert Pape was consulted by the Department of Defense regarding potential military intervention in an African country, likely Somalia.
- His data ultimately dissuaded them from sending troops.
Sanctions Effectiveness
- Economic sanctions are effective for simple goals like trade deals.
- However, sanctions rarely succeed in achieving complex goals like regime change.
Japan Sanctions
- U.S. oil sanctions on Japan in 1941 backfired, empowering hawks and leading to Pearl Harbor.
- Pape suggests similar risks exist with current sanctions on Iran.