GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish Iran: An Oily TACO Enough?
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Mar 11, 2026 
Freya Beamish, TS Lombard economist focused on labour markets and central bank policy, and Dario Perkins, TS Lombard macroeconomist specializing in inflation and energy shocks, discuss Iran’s conflict and its market fallout. They map short to protracted scenarios, quantify initial energy-driven CPI effects, assess central bank responses, and consider dollar strength, terms-of-trade winners, and timing for a potential market rebound.
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Reacceleration Likely Postponed Not Ended
- The Iran war is currently a temporary setback to the re-acceleration thesis rather than a permanent shock to global growth.
- Dario Perkins expects a few quarters' postponement of re-acceleration if the conflict resolves in weeks and oil/inflation fall back below peak levels.
Major Powers Have Incentive To Restore Oil Flows
- Geopolitics may force an off-ramp because Iran, China and Russia prefer oil revenues to keep flowing, creating pressure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Freya Beamish notes China gets ~40% of its oil via the strait, so Beijing would pressure Iran to de-escalate to restore exports.
Emergency Analyst Meeting Produced A Quick Calm
- The team experienced a rapid panic-then-calm cycle similar to prior shocks when internal meetings reassured analysts and markets quickly softened.
- Andrew Slazinger likened their Monday analyst meeting and subsequent 'taco' moment to past episodes like Greenland and tariffs.