Ken McElroy Show

BlackRock Just Confirmed the Worst-Case Scenario

Feb 4, 2026
They dig into BlackRock’s recent private credit markdowns and what that reveals about stress in multifamily lending. They explain private credit mechanics, extend-and-pretend refinancing, and why rising maturities create a debt wall. They cover who bears losses, signs that more write-downs may be coming, and strategies for buying distressed multifamily assets.
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INSIGHT

Private Credit Is The Hidden Engine

  • Private credit is the big, flexible lending layer outside traditional banks that funded many multifamily deals.
  • BlackRock's markdowns expose underlying weaknesses in those private-credit placements.
INSIGHT

Refinance Assumptions Drove Current Risk

  • Many deals relied on future refinancing and rising values rather than stable cash flow.
  • When rates rose and values fell, sponsors faced maturity pain and equity depletion.
ADVICE

Search The Debt Wall For Deals

  • Track loan maturities and asset types to spot forced sellers and buying opportunities.
  • Talk with lenders and analyze broker opinions of value before making offers.
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