On Investors’ Minds - APAC Edition How much longer will oil prices stay elevated?
Mar 24, 2026
A deep dive into how the US‑Iran conflict could keep oil and energy prices high. Discussion of shipping bottlenecks through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Gulf production. Comparison of 2022 and 2026 inflation and central bank positioning. Risks to tech, manufacturing and LNG supplies are explored alongside shifts toward renewables and portfolio positioning ideas.
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Persisting Energy Shock From Gulf Infrastructure Risks
- Global energy shock could last longer due to damaged Gulf infrastructure and Strait of Hormuz risks.
- Tai Hui highlights damaged facilities, Iran's attack on Qatar LNG removing ~30mt capacity, and shipping bottlenecks raising prices.
Tighter Policy Dampens Energy Shock Inflation
- The 2026 inflation backdrop is less reactive than 2022 because demand is stable and policy is tighter.
- Tai Hui notes real Fed funds went from -3.35% (Feb 2022) to about 0.7% now, reducing shock transmission to broad inflation.
Asia Faces Bigger Short Term Energy Exposure
- Asia is more exposed because ~80% of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asia.
- Tai Hui points out Japan and South Korea get >60% of oil from the Gulf and hold 3–6 months of reserves; LNG storage is far harder to substitute.