Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: February 23th, 2026
32 snips
Feb 23, 2026 
Norman Roule, former senior U.S. intelligence official and adviser on warfare and terrorism, breaks down U.S.-Iran Geneva talks and Tehran’s likely bargaining tactics. He discusses Iran’s internal survival calculations and why the U.S. has mounted an unprecedented military buildup. He also assesses naval readiness and looming missile and militia threats in the region.
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Unprecedented Military Buildup Raises Pressure
- The current U.S. military buildup in the Middle East is unprecedented since 2003 and unmatched historically against Iran.
- Roule stresses such a concentration of force typically leads to action unless Iran makes major concessions to justify withdrawal.
Act Now Or Pay More Later Logic
- Roule argues the U.S. and Israel have degraded Iran's nuclear weapons capability but Iran can rebuild other threats like missiles and militias.
- He frames the decision as pay now with military action or pay more later if Iran's programs recover.
Wait Before Suing For Tariff Refunds
- Companies should adopt a wait-and-see posture on tariff refunds until lower courts and the U.S. International Trade Court provide clarity.
- Kate Kalutkiewicz notes Treasury will follow lower courts and firms like Costco may lead litigation for refunds.