Hedgeye Podcasts Hedgeye NexGen | Episode 33 | Inflation (Iran Conflict Edition)
Mar 15, 2026
Jose Valcourt, a Global Tech analyst focused on semiconductors, AI and supply chains, joins to unpack tech and logistics risks. They explore how Middle East oil and shipping disruptions push inflation through fuel, transport and food costs. Conversation also touches on tanker insurance, airline pricing, and how AI and supply shocks reshape jobs and sector-specific pressures.
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Bromine Shortages Hit Memory Chip Supply
- Jose Valcourt shares a tech example: bromine shipped via the same passage is used in memory chip production and disruptions hit memory suppliers.
- He notes Korea sources 70%+ bromide from the Middle East, tying geopolitical risk to semiconductor underperformance.
Oil Spikes Precede CPI Acceleration
- Crude oil price movements lead CPI by about a month, so rapid oil spikes presage headline inflation acceleration.
- Ricci overlays WTI and CPI showing the black oil line typically leads the gray CPI line into higher readings.
Energy Costs Pass Through To Food With Predictable Lags
- Energy input increases (diesel, natural gas) flow through agriculture with lags: fertilizer and diesel cost rises show up in crops months later.
- Ricci notes fertiliser via natural gas affects corn/wheat with ~12-week lags and cattle over 35 months.
